How do I calculate Volatility in football
In the stats page, I added a stat called 2014-15 Avg point variance. That’s basically their volatility percentage. This is calculated by taking the players average point variance and divide it into the average point variance for that position among all players. A score of 1 is average. A score less than one means their average variance is less than average. This means they have less volatility in their average points. A player great than 1 means they have more volatility. These players are better for tournaments because have a higher ceiling.
For example, Let’s look at compare Keenan Allen WR to Emmanuel Sanders WR. WR on a whole have an average fantasy pts of 5.7 with an average variance of 2.81. To get variance, say a person with an average score of 6 gets 10 points one week. thats a variance of 4.
So WR average variance is 2.81 out of average points of 5.7, which means that 49% of a players average points should be their variance.
Emmanuel Sanders averages 14.8 points per game in 2014-15. So we would expect his average variance to be 49% of that which is 7.3. However when pulling up his game log and looking at all the variances each week, his average variance is 5.9. So that is less than the average, so that would make him seem like a safer play for cash games. HE has less volatility than average. So when we take 5.9/7.3, we get .815, which is less than 1.
Keenan Allen averages 10.7 ppg so we’d expect his average variance to be 5.2. However his real average variance is 7.2. So when we divide 7.2/5.2 we get 1. 37. That number is a lot great than 1, so we know he is a more volatile play.
I then use these rates to adjust the projections on the Multilineup 1 tab when you change the dropdown in AB6 to Cash game or High Risk. If you play High Risk, this system would adjust Keenan Allen projection up a bit but if you play cash games, it will adjust Emmanuel Sanders projection up a bit and Allen’e down.