Draftkings Picks: August 12th

Worth the money: Jose Altuve (HOU, $5100)

Simply put, Altuve is on fire lately.  The likely batting champion has hit an outstanding .407 over his last 15 games with 2 HR and 11 RBI over that span.  Tonight he is facing lefty Francisco Liriano, making his first start of the season in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre.  Liriano has a monstrous WHIP this season at 1.61 and has given up 71 BB over 119.2 IP (5.4 BB/9).  Altuve has also hit unbelievably on the road this season.  In 54 games he has a     .434/.500/.637/1.137 stat line through 212 ABs.  Those are simply incredible numbers and he looks to make them even better tonight in Toronto.  With Altuve’s speed and ability to get on base at a videogame like pace, look for him to accrue points in a variety of ways.  Whether it be via the home run or the stolen base, or simply just by collecting 3+ hits, the tiny man looks to have a productive night.  The astros as a team have a very good matchup tonight.  Use other pieces of their team in accordance with Altuve if you’re looking to stack against a pitcher.  It could prove to yield a lot of points.

 

Batter Pick: Carlos Beltran (TEX, $4300)

Beltran has done well since his trade from the Yankees.  In 9 games with Texas, the veteran switch hitter has collected 9 hits in 29 ABs, 4 of which have gone for extra bases.  That’s good for a .310 AVG and .517 SLG. Beltran is showing no signs of slowing down, even at the age at 39.  He has a favourable matchup against Detroit veteran RHP Anibal Sanchez, who has struggled this year putting together a 6-11 record with a 5.88 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 26 games (18 starts).  With Beltran doing very well since the trade and Sanchez’s below average numbers,  Beltran could be set up to do very well tonight in Arlington.  He continues to put is bat on the ball with power and until he fails to do so, he will be a very effective major league hitter.  My bold prediction is for him to put one out of the yard and cash in a couple of RBI while adding a single to it as well.  Texas also makes a case for another potential team stack.

 

Pitcher Pick: Jon Gray (COL, $8900)

Gray is a pitcher on tonight’s slate that might get overlooked as a potential 25+ point guy due to the likes of David Price and Steven Strasburg taking the mound.  The Rockies have seemed to find their ‘ace’ in Gray and he looks to continue his impressive season against the woeful Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies come into tonight near the bottom of the league in both average and runs scored.  That bodes very well for Gray who has been stellar post all star break, a 3-1 record with a 3.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 5 starts.  Gray’s numbers are also considerably better on the road than at home, which is not surprising considering baseballs tend to just fly out of Coors Field.  The only thing that is not better is his W/L record (5-1 at home, 1-4 on the road).  This could be due to the Rockies ability to give Gray many runs in support at Coors Field and less on the road.  Gray is also averaging over 9 strikeouts per 9 innings and could be a very good source of points for a moderate salary.  He offers salary relief compared to some of the other pitchers on tonight’s slate but has the same point potential.  His ceiling is high while his basement in turn is also relatively high. Use him with confidence tonight versus the Phillies.

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Top Plays for NBA 3/1/16

Here are my top plays for today, March 1, 2016:

Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
1 Nicolas Batum SG Cha PHO 6200 6700
Batum is playing Home against the Phoenix Suns. He averages 34.88 fantasy points at home compared to his normal average of 29.83.  Batum takes on a Phoenix Suns team that ranks 28 against the SG. In games following  a weak performance, he usually rebounds with a good game by averaging 13.1% more fantasy points.
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
2 Klay Thompson SG GSW ATL 7200 7600
Thompson is playing Home against the Atlanta Hawks. He averages 38.9 fantasy points against the Atlanta Hawks this year. In games following a very good performance, he usually stays hot by averaging 18.6% more fantasy points.
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
3 Jeremy Lamb SG Cha PHO 3600 3400
Today, Jeremy Lamb is playing Home against the Phoenix Suns. Today, he takes on a Phoenix Suns team that ranks 28 against the SG.
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
4 David Lee PF Dal ORL 4500 4000
David Lee is playing Home against the Orlando Magic. He averages 17.23 fantasy points at home compared to his normal average of 16.37.  He averages 20.3 fantasy points against the Orlando Magic this year. has also seen a 24% increase in minutes the last 3 games He, takes on a Orlando Magic team that ranks 26 against the PF. In games following a very good performance, he usually stays hot by averaging 10% more fantasy points. You have to play him today!
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
5 Shane Larkin PG Bkn LAL 3500 3600
Larkin is playing Away against the Los Angeles Lakers.  has also seen a 15% increase in minutes the last 3 games Today, he takes on a Los Angeles Lakers team that ranks 30 against the PG.
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
6 Meyers Leonard C Por NYK 3600 3600
Today, Leonard is playing Away against the New York Knicks.  Defintiely try to make room for this guy in your lineup.
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
7 Kyle Korver SG Atl GSW 3700 4400
Today, Kyle Korver is playing Away against the Golden State Warriors. He averages 18.8 fantasy points on the road compared to his normal average of 17.75.  Korver takes on a Golden State Warriors team that ranks 22 against the SG.
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
8 Harrison Barnes SF GSW ATL 4200 4800
Today, Harrison Barnes is playing Home against the Atlanta Hawks. He averages 21.46 fantasy points at home compared to his normal average of 20.71.   He makes for a great play today.
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
9 Donald Sloan PG Bkn LAL 4800 5100
Donald Sloan is playing Away against the Los Angeles Lakers. He averages 17.99 fantasy points on the road compared to his normal average of 16.53.  Over the last 3 games, he has averaged 25.27 fantasy points with a minimum of 21.6 fantasy points while averaging 25.87 fantasy points over his last six. has also seen a 14% increase in minutes the last 3 games Sloan takes on a Los Angeles Lakers team that ranks 30 against the PG.
Player Pos Team Oppo Fanduel Draftking
10 Goran Dragic PG Mia CHI 6300 6500
Dragic is playing Home against the Chicago Bulls. Over the last 3 games, he has averaged 28.33 fantasy points with a minimum of 25.9 fantasy points while averaging 35.42 fantasy points over his last six.In addition, he takes on a Chicago Bulls team that ranks 25 against the PG. You should try to roster him if possible!
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How to Use Solver to create a daily fantasy football lineup for Fanduel

Many people use Excel for helping them in choosing their daily fantasy lineups.  Using Solver in Excel is a great way to help narrow down who you want to choose in your lineups.  However Solver can be tricky.  Even after using it for a long time, I still run into issues.  So I made this video on how to use solver to pick your daily fantasy football lineup for Fanduel.

I already made one for baseball.  It is at http://optimizelineups.com/2015/05/06/how-to-use-solver-in-excel-to-generate-optimal-lineups-for-daily-fantasy-sports/

This video below will explain how to set up your spreadsheet.  Tells you that Solver only looks at the top 200 records so you need to sort them for the best players to be at the top.  It shows how to set up the constraints for solver and the type of Solver program to use.  While it is similar to the baseball one, it has some differences so please let me know if you run into problems.

 

 

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How to use Excel Solver to create a lineup with a Flex or Utility spot

In a previous blog post, I made a video showing how to run an optimal lineup in Excel using Solver.  That post is here.  That post showed a straight forward lineup without a flex spot.  However, some websites require you to pick a flex or utility spot.  That makes it a little trickier.

Click here to download the spreadsheet

I’m not going to go over every step again of setting this up for Solver. But I will describe the main differences. The main difference is to change the Solver requirements for each position. Say we want to add one utility spot. Instead of entering into Solver an exact match, we need to make a minimum and maximum.

For example, for 1B, instead of saying we want one first baseman, we will say we want a minimum of 1 but a maximum of 2 first basemen. Then you have to set that up for all the positions. In addition, you need to make sure the total number of players is updated. This way Solver will pull the correct number of players and find which positional player will be chosen for the utility spot.

solver_with_flex

solver_flex_2

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