Top NBA Plays for tonights gameare here. Check out this video from Ian, who helped team up with us.
Worth the money: Jose Altuve (HOU, $5100)
Simply put, Altuve is on fire lately. The likely batting champion has hit an outstanding .407 over his last 15 games with 2 HR and 11 RBI over that span. Tonight he is facing lefty Francisco Liriano, making his first start of the season in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre. Liriano has a monstrous WHIP this season at 1.61 and has given up 71 BB over 119.2 IP (5.4 BB/9). Altuve has also hit unbelievably on the road this season. In 54 games he has a .434/.500/.637/1.137 stat line through 212 ABs. Those are simply incredible numbers and he looks to make them even better tonight in Toronto. With Altuve’s speed and ability to get on base at a videogame like pace, look for him to accrue points in a variety of ways. Whether it be via the home run or the stolen base, or simply just by collecting 3+ hits, the tiny man looks to have a productive night. The astros as a team have a very good matchup tonight. Use other pieces of their team in accordance with Altuve if you’re looking to stack against a pitcher. It could prove to yield a lot of points.
Batter Pick: Carlos Beltran (TEX, $4300)
Beltran has done well since his trade from the Yankees. In 9 games with Texas, the veteran switch hitter has collected 9 hits in 29 ABs, 4 of which have gone for extra bases. That’s good for a .310 AVG and .517 SLG. Beltran is showing no signs of slowing down, even at the age at 39. He has a favourable matchup against Detroit veteran RHP Anibal Sanchez, who has struggled this year putting together a 6-11 record with a 5.88 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 26 games (18 starts). With Beltran doing very well since the trade and Sanchez’s below average numbers, Beltran could be set up to do very well tonight in Arlington. He continues to put is bat on the ball with power and until he fails to do so, he will be a very effective major league hitter. My bold prediction is for him to put one out of the yard and cash in a couple of RBI while adding a single to it as well. Texas also makes a case for another potential team stack.
Pitcher Pick: Jon Gray (COL, $8900)
Gray is a pitcher on tonight’s slate that might get overlooked as a potential 25+ point guy due to the likes of David Price and Steven Strasburg taking the mound. The Rockies have seemed to find their ‘ace’ in Gray and he looks to continue his impressive season against the woeful Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies come into tonight near the bottom of the league in both average and runs scored. That bodes very well for Gray who has been stellar post all star break, a 3-1 record with a 3.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 5 starts. Gray’s numbers are also considerably better on the road than at home, which is not surprising considering baseballs tend to just fly out of Coors Field. The only thing that is not better is his W/L record (5-1 at home, 1-4 on the road). This could be due to the Rockies ability to give Gray many runs in support at Coors Field and less on the road. Gray is also averaging over 9 strikeouts per 9 innings and could be a very good source of points for a moderate salary. He offers salary relief compared to some of the other pitchers on tonight’s slate but has the same point potential. His ceiling is high while his basement in turn is also relatively high. Use him with confidence tonight versus the Phillies.
Edwin Encarnacion – 1B TOR Fanduel: 3900 Draftkings: 4600 – Encarnacionwill go against Collin McHugh at Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) which ranks number 9 in runs scored and number 3 in home runs allowed. McHugh has an ERA against righties of 4.37 with a wOBA of 0.347. Also he has been playing poorly on the road. His ERA on the road is 5.25 and his wOBA is 0.356. Encarnacion at home is incredible. His ISO is 0.312 and has a wOBA of 0.394. Encarnacion hits righties very hard. His ISO is 0.276 and has a wOBA of 0.378. This guy should crush it today if he is starting.
David Ortiz – 1B BOS Fanduel: 4400 Draftkings: 4900 – Ortiz will face Archie Bradley at Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) which ranks number 5 in runs scored. The over under on this game is huge, at 10.5 so expect some runs to be scored. Bradley has an ERA against lefties of 5.06 with a wOBA of 0.401. His ERA on the road is 3.38 and his wOBA is 0.314. Ortiz at home is money. His ISO is 0.376 and has a wOBA of 0.48. Ortiz hits righties big time, to the tune of an ISO of 0.364 and has a wOBA of 0.444. He should score some big points for you today if he is starting.
Freddie Freeman – 1B ATL Fanduel: 3600 Draftkings: 5000 – Freeman faces Reynaldo Lopez at Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.) which ranks number 6 in runs scored. Lopez has an ERA against lefties of 8.53 with a wOBA of 0.276. Also he has been playing poorly at home. His ERA at home is 11.57 and his wOBA is 0.473. Over the last 7 days Freeman has scored 25 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 11. He has a batting average of 0.455 and a slugging percentage of 1.136 over that time. He also has hit 4 homeruns. Freeman on the road is incredible. His ISO is 0.292 and has a wOBA of 0.406. Freeman hits righties big time, to the tune of an ISO of 0.266 and has a wOBA of 0.375. You need to get him in your lineups today.
Kendrys Morales – 1B KAN Fanduel: 2900 Draftkings: 3300 – Moralesis facing Tyler Duffey at Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota) which ranks number 3 in runs scored and number 14 in home runs allowed. There’s a high over under on this game, 9.5 so expect some runs to be scored. Duffey has an ERA against switch hitters of 4.01 with a wOBA of 0.326. Also he has been playing poorly at home. His ERA at home is 7.22 and his wOBA is 0.399. Throughout the last 7 days Morales has scored 13.8 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 8.7. He has a batting average of 0.353 and a slugging percentage of 0.706 over that time. He also has hit 2 homeruns.
Mike Napoli – 1B CLE Fanduel: 3800 Draftkings: 5400 – Napoli will be battling Matt Shoemaker at Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio). The over under on this game is huge, at 9.5 so expect a high scoring game. Shoemaker has an ERA against righties of 4.34 with a wOBA of 0.337. His ERA on the road is 4.89 and his wOBA is 0.337. During the prior 7 days Napoli has scored 17.5 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 12.9. He has a batting average of 0.400 and a slugging percentage of 0.850 over that time. He also has hit 2 homeruns. Napoli at home crushes it. He has an ISO of 0.364 and has a wOBA of 0.452. Napoli hits righties very hard. His ISO is 0.264 and has a wOBA of 0.355.
Devon Travis – 2B TOR Fanduel: 3100 Draftkings: 4600 – Travis will be taking on Collin McHugh at Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) which ranks number 9 in runs scored and number 3 in home runs allowed. McHugh has an ERA against righties of 4.37 with a wOBA of 0.347. Also he has not done well on the road. His ERA on the road is 5.25 and his wOBA is 0.356. During the past week Travis has scored 13.1 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 11.1. He has a batting average of 0.423 and a slugging percentage of 0.615 over that time. Travis hits righties in a big way, with an ISO of 0.230 and has a wOBA of 0.393.
Rougned Odor – 2B TEX Fanduel: 3700 Draftkings: 5000 – Odor will face Matt Boyd at Globe Life Park in Arlington (Arlington, Texas) which ranks number 7 in runs scored. The over under on this game is huge, at 9.5 so expect a lot of runs to be scored. Boyd has an ERA against lefties of 5.40 with a wOBA of 0.300. Also he isn’t getting it done on the road. His ERA on the road is 6.94 and his wOBA is 0.382. During the past week Odor has scored 14.6 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 11.2. He has a batting average of 0.344 and a slugging percentage of 0.625 over that time. Odor at home crushes it. He has an ISO of 0.235 and has a wOBA of 0.355. Odor hits lefties big time, to the tune of an ISO of 0.200 and has a wOBA of 0.32.
Jean Segura – 2B ARI Fanduel: 3600 Draftkings: 5000 – Segura is taking on Clay Buchholz at Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) which ranks number 5 in runs scored. There’s a high over under on this game, 10.5 so expect a lot of runs to be scored. Buchholz has an ERA against righties of 4.05 with a wOBA of 0.300. Also he has not done well at home. His ERA at home is 5.8 and his wOBA is 0.359. Over the last 7 days Segura has scored 18.3 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 11.4. He has a batting average of 0.367 and a slugging percentage of 0.667 over that time. Segura on the road is money. His ISO is 0.141 and has a wOBA of 0.354. Segura hits righties big time, to the tune of an ISO of 0.148 and has a wOBA of 0.353. You need to get him in your lineups today.
Brian Dozier – 2B MIN Fanduel: 3900 Draftkings: 5100 – Dozier is facing Dillon Gee at Target Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota) which ranks number 3 in runs scored and number 14 in home runs allowed. There’s a high over under on this game, 9.5 so expect some runs to be scored. Gee has an ERA against righties of 4.22 with a wOBA of 0.346. His ERA on the road is 4.13 and his wOBA is 0.339. During the past week Dozier has scored 13.4 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 11.7. He has a batting average of 0.276 and a slugging percentage of 0.621 over that time. He also has hit 2 homeruns. Dozier at home is money. His ISO is 0.211 and has a wOBA of 0.334. Dozier hits righties in a big way, with an ISO of 0.213 and has a wOBA of 0.333. This guy should get some good fantasy points.
Jason Kipnis – 2B CLE Fanduel: 3700 Draftkings: 5000 – Kipnisis facing Matt Shoemaker at Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio). There’s a high over under on this game, 9.5 so expect a high scoring game. Shoemaker has an ERA against lefties of 3.86 with a wOBA of 0.291. His ERA on the road is 4.89 and his wOBA is 0.337. Over the last week Kipnis has scored 19.2 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 11.5. He has a batting average of 0.391 and a slugging percentage of 0.652 over that time. Kipnis at home is incredible. His ISO is 0.229 and has a wOBA of 0.374. Kipnis hits righties big time, to the tune of an ISO of 0.216 and has a wOBA of 0.369. He should score some big points for you today if he is starting.
Josh Donaldson – 3B TOR Fanduel: 3800 Draftkings: 5100 – Donaldsonwill go against Collin McHugh at Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) which ranks number 9 in runs scored and number 3 in home runs allowed. McHugh has an ERA against righties of 4.37 with a wOBA of 0.347. Also he has not done well on the road. His ERA on the road is 5.25 and his wOBA is 0.356. Donaldson at home is incredible. His ISO is 0.260 and has a wOBA of 0.409. Donaldson hits righties in a big way, with an ISO of 0.279 and has a wOBA of 0.401.
Travis Shaw – 3B BOS Fanduel: 2700 Draftkings: 3800 – Shaw is facing Archie Bradley at Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) which ranks number 5 in runs scored. There’s a high over under on this game, 10.5 so expect a lot of runs to be scored. Bradley has an ERA against lefties of 5.06 with a wOBA of 0.401. His ERA on the road is 3.38 and his wOBA is 0.314. Shaw at home is money. His ISO is 0.215 and has a wOBA of 0.355. Shaw hits righties big time, to the tune of an ISO of 0.194 and has a wOBA of 0.345.
Jake Lamb – 3B ARI Fanduel: 3200 Draftkings: 5300 – Lamb will be pitted against Clay Buchholz at Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) which ranks number 5 in runs scored. This game has a high over under of 10.5 so expect a lot of runs to be scored. Buchholz has an ERA against lefties of 7.88 with a wOBA of 0.386. In addition he really has been pretty weak at home. His ERA at home is 5.8 and his wOBA is 0.359. Lamb on the road is incredible. His ISO is 0.215 and has a wOBA of 0.34. Lamb hits righties very hard. His ISO is 0.320 and has a wOBA of 0.41.
Adonis Garcia – 3B ATL Fanduel: 2500 Draftkings: 4200 – Garcia will face Reynaldo Lopez at Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.) which ranks number 6 in runs scored. Lopez has an ERA against righties of 11.57 with a wOBA of 0.606. In addition he really has been pretty weak at home. His ERA at home is 11.57 and his wOBA is 0.473. During the past week Garcia has scored 8.9 Fanduel fantasy points while his season average is 8. He has a batting average of 0.259 and a slugging percentage of 0.407 over that time.
Draftkings Picks: August 5th
Value pick: Mike Zunino (SEA, $2900)
Zunino comes into today’s game on a bit of a hot streak. He has been hitting rather well since his return to the Mariners lineup and looks to continue that success against a struggling pitcher in Tim Lincecum. In only 13 games this season he has 5 home runs to go along with 3 doubles. 8 of his 10 base hits have gone for extra bases. Now, while this is certainly unsustainable for a player who has never shown consistent power production over the course of his career, you want to ride him while he’s hot. His OPS at the moment sits at a terrific 1.128 to go along with an isolated slugging percentage of .434, both well above league average. He has hit 2 HR in his last 3 games and is going up against a pitcher with an 8.50+ ERA. Lock him in for a low salary and spend up on someone who is a little more proven.
Pitcher Pick : Jaime Garcia (STL, $6900)
First of all, he is playing the Braves, and at a salary so low, it doesn’t hurt to give him a chance versus the softest hitting team in baseball. Although he has struggled in his previous couple of outings, a bounce back against a struggling Braves lineup doesn’t seem that unlikely. Garcia boasts decent strikeout numbers, recording 30 in his previous 39 innings (7 games, 6.9 K/9) and versus a team batting .243 collectively, he should be able to record a good amount of outs. He offers salary relief if you want to pair him with a high end talent such as Verlander or Syndegaard and can give you 20+ points at a very modest price. Use him with confidence.
Batting Picks: Robinson Cano (SEA, $5000)
An elite lefty hitter facing a troublesome righty makes for a perfect matchup in fantasy sports. Cano is absolutely destroying right handed pitchers this year putting together a line of 312/.374/.585/.958. With 24 homers on the season versus Lincecum (2.6 HR/9 in 8 starts) having Cano in the lineup tonight could prove to be very beneficial. The entire Mariners team has a favourable matchup tonight. If some batters can get on in front of Cano he could have a very productive night. Look for Cano to send one out of the yard tonight and make sure he is in your lineup when he does so.
Tyler Naquin (CLE, $3900)
The young batter in Cleveland has enjoyed a pretty successful rookie campaign. He looks to continue that success against an inconsistent RHP in Michael Pineda. Batting left handed, the matchup is very good for Naquin. Versus right handers this season he he is hitting with a line of 339/.401/.645/1.046 which is unreal for a rookie. The sample size isn’t small either as he has collected 183 ABs versus RHP. Everyone in the baseball world knows that Pineda can be a little wild at times and that is good news with Naquin priced so cheap. Pineda has actually pitched better to lefties than righties this year but his ERA against them is still an unsightly 4.72. Pineda does give up his fair share of walks as well (2.6BB/9) and Naquin does have 3 stolen bases this season so if he does get on base, it would not be surprising to see him steal a bag. With stolen bases being valued very high on DK it could be a source of some cheap fantasy points. Naquin is a cheap source of offence and should be able to outperform some of the higher priced options listed above him.
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2016 WGC Bridgestone
Firestone Country Club, Akron OH
Par 70 – 7400 yards
2015 Champion – Shane Lowry
I wonder how Keegan Bradley would play on this course with a short putter? Dude used to own this course but since his switch to the non-belly putter he has successfully made many amateurs feel better about their putting. Due to his putting woes he isn’t even playing here this year. Did you know that heading into last week Bradley was #1 in total driving? Why the heck am I talking about KEEGAN BRADLEY, he is irrelevant right? Yes and no. I refer to Keegan because it points to the fact that total driving is probably pretty important around here. A quick look at the past winners and their total driving stats seem to make this pretty clear. Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Keegan Bradley (currently a BUM), Adam Scott, Hunter Mahan (currently a BUM), Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Tiger Woods, Tiger Woods and, well you get the point. All of these guys are/were at the time of their win Total Driving studs with Tiger Possibly being the outlier of the group, but when Tiger was Tiger he was always the outlier.
This week I am going to lean more towards GPP than usual simply because this is a no-cut event. I have to admit the Cash side of me is a bit disappointed.
Birdie or Better percentage
In honor of Andrew “BEEF” Johnston making it back to the states this week I’m ranking players like cuts of BEEF. Give him a follow on twitter @BeefGolf , he is worth the follow for sure.
Strip Steak– 1”+ thick cut of course. As long as this cut of BEEF is not overcooked this is top notch, unfortunately you have to pay up for it.
Dustin Johnson $11,600 – Top GPP play of the week because of a less than stellar course history. Yeah that sounds backwards but that’s exactly why he makes sense. I know there are a bunch of course horse history buffs out there so hopefully they will kindly stay away from DJ. Throw in the fact that he is coming off his first Major victory I think people could sense a letdown and not go as heavy on DJ as normal. Something to consider, DJ’s though process is simple. See ball. Hit ball. Makes birdies or better. This works for GPP’s. He is #1 in BoB% and Par 4 scoring he is also #3 in SGT2G. You don’t want to miss out on this prime cut of BEEF.
Skirt Steak– Thinly cut and grilled for a short time, for those looking for a cheaper yet decent taste, just make sure it is trimmed properly.
Brooks Koepka $9,900 – He might as well be a strip steak this week but price says differently, barely. Top 30 in Total Driving (27th) , BoB% (14th) , SGT2G (23rd), Par 4 scoring (5th) and prox. from 175-200 (5th). Last year he was the only golfer at this tournament to go sub 70 all 4 days. Can you say bonus points? Pick up your fork and knife and cut yourself off a piece of Brooks this week.
Jason Dufner $8,500 – The slightly marbleized Dufner comes into the tournament in his best form since 2013. That year he finished 4th here. He ranks in the top thirty in SGT2G(21st), BoB% (16th), Total Driving(29th), and Par 4 scoring(25th). If he can do anything with the flat stick this week, or he can stick it close to the pin on his approaches he is going to score. The more he scores the more you score, the more you score the more you win.
The Shank – If you’re a pro chef it can be edible, generally pretty tough and often difficult get good tasting pieces however.
David Lingmerth $7,600 – Nothing that Lingmerth does sticks out as top notch, but nothing that he does sticks out as bad either. He is a guy that just hangs around and occasionally pops up on the leaderboard. Last year he finished 6th here so he knows how to get around the track. If he has an A1 type week he will be a solid contrarian GPP investment and probably help you win some cash.
Emiliano Grillo $7,000 — Word is Argentina has some pretty good beef and people in Argentina probably agree because they eat a lot of it, over 120 lbs per person per year. What the heck does this have to do with Grillo, well other than the fact that he is from Argentina nothing really. I just am in awe that they eat so much meat and I had to share with all 5 of you that actually read this write-up. Grillo ranks #5 in total driving and 38th in BoB%. He has a victory this season so he knows how to win on Tour. Although this is a no-cut event it’s worth noting that he has made 9 of his last 10 cuts. A top 15 finish is very possible and that would make him more than worth his $7k price tag.
Andrew Johnston $6,300 — BEEF played the US Open, made the cut and finished in 54th place. That’s nothing too stellar but he did make the cut which means he outplayed Rory, Rickie, and Phil. Also being back in the USA to tee it up for the 2nd time in 3 weeks can’t hurt either. He’s got a sweet beard and loves BEEF. He won on the Euro Tour this year so we can say he knows how to win. This whole article is dedicated to BEEF so I say play him this week and cheer him on. Why? Because there is nothing like a fun, slightly fat guy with a beard and a great accent.
Beef Wiener’s – If you pay no attention to what goes into it you might actually enjoy one.
Jim Herman $5,800 — Herman is 7th in Total driving and 10th in prox. from 200+. Since he can’t get cut this week for $5,800 he is worth a flyer. He needs to add a little mustard to his driver this week or else he’ll be playing Ketchup all weekend. Please if you do eat Beef Wieners don’t use ketchup that’s for kids only. Mustard only!
Hope this was a fun read for you. If you made it this far, congratulations you are the only one other than myself who did. Please drop me a note on Twitter @wedge2424 and tell me how obnoxiously terrible this write up was. Thanks and enjoy the 4 days of golf that we are getting this week because the PGA will be off next week because of the flooding that has affected the area. Sending out nothing but positive thoughts to those affected by the flooding in West Virginia. See you guys for the “British” Open in 2 weeks, yeah that’s right I said British Open…
It’s Millionaire Maker Week so this week we will focus on GPP plays and strategy for trying to separate yourself and win BIG money. With over 200K entries you are going to have to find a player or two that is low owned and will finish pretty high and have 6/6 players make the cut. To get a good idea who some low owned players may be I would suggest listening to a few DFS Podcasts and perusing the internet and looking for US Open DraftKings DFS picks. Make some notes do some stats research and see if you can find that guy that no one is talking about that fits your stat requirements.
Onto the tournament. Oakmont Country club last hosted the US Open in 2007 when Angel Cabrera shot a 1-under 69 on the final day to come back from 4 behind Aaron Baddeley and hold off Jim Furyk and “Sunday” Tiger Woods down the stretch. “El Pato” Cabrera ended up winning with a total 285 / 5 over. The course itself has 209 bunkers which includes the famous Church pew style bunkers that run between the 3rd and 4th holes and down the 15th fairway. Many of the remaining bunkers are very deep and will require players just to get out of the bunker and not go at the green. Also you are going to see more shots from the wrong fairway than you normally do due to the fact the course is pretty open and not many trees to divide the fairways. You can be sure the rough will be brutal and there will be many shots hit from the rough that will travel short distances. After the players navigate their way to the greens it isn’t going to get any easier. In-fact it will probably get more difficult. The greens will run 14-15 on the stimpmeter so it is fitting that Oakmont is where the stimpmeter was first thought up. When you get down to it this week is going to be about survival. We may see a 90 + this week!
Stats to Focus on this week – Driving Accuracy (DA), Bogey Avoidance (BA), Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SGT2G), Par 4 scoring, Strokes gained putting (SGP), 3 putt avoidance, Scrambling
Rickie Fowler $10,700 – Fowler’s ownership #’s may be lower than usual coming off of 2 MC’s in a row. I think what Rickie has going for him this US Open is the fact that he is not being touted as a potential winner. Rickie played well in all of the Majors in 2014 when expectations were not nearly as high but by the time 2015 came around he was being hyped big time. He ended up missing the cut last years US Open at Chambers Bay. Rickie has the stats to fit what it will most likely take to win the US Open. He ranks #1 in BA, #2 in par 4 scoring, #4 in SGT2G, #19 in Scrambling. I’m hoping he learned something at the Masters this year and may ease off trying to ram the ball into the back of the hole, if he does this I think he has a legit chance to win in 2016 and add his name to the list of great players to win at Oakmont.
$8,000 – $9,900
Brandt Snedeker – Sneds is a grinder type player as is evidenced by his recent US Open finishes. His last 4 have resulted in top 17 or better finishes with the last two being top 10 finishes. Coming into these last 4 US Opens Snedeker had not been on any sort of substantial consecutive cut roll, no different than this year. Hopefully people will fail to notice this fact and overlook him a bit due to his recent form. I see several names in his price range that could draw more attention (Oosthuizen, Koepka, Reed, and Furyk). Snedeker ranks in the top 15 in BA, Par 4 scoring, and Scrambling. If he can keep the ball in the fairway and get his pop-shot putter rolling another Top 10 is a real possibility.
Martin Kaymer $7,600 – Two years ago Kaymer ran away with the US Open. He was a master of using his putter from off the greens and he kept the ball in the fairway pretty regularly. Then last year while competing as the defending champ he ended up with a MC. Kaymer has not played much here in the states this year which should keep him off of most people’s radar. But when you look at his play recently in Europe, albeit against lesser talent overall he has recorded 3 straight Top 10’s. His driving accuracy #’s do not suggest a guy who is overly accurate but when the German gets his swing righted he can be as accurate as anyone on tour for a stretch of 4 days. Honestly he doesn’t have a bunch of stats that scream pick me, but he has been making cuts consistently for the last 3+ months. At the price he is listed at he will make a good contrarian play to Charl Schwartzel who is likely to be owned a a much greater %. Kaymer has won big tournaments in the past and he fits the mold of guys who will most likely be under owned with winning upside.
$6500 and below
David Toms $6,300- He has made 7 of his last 8 cuts on tour which only includes one top 20 a 14th place finish at RBC Heritage. That being said 5 of his other cuts made have resulted in finishes ranging from 25th-39th. Not bad for a guy who be eligible for the Senior Tour in 6 months. I know it was almost 10 years ago when the US Open was last played at Oakmont but that year Toms finished T5 so that has to count for something. He is ranked 16th on tour in scrambling and 21st in driving accuracy 38th in Par 4 scoring and 40th in Bogey avoidance. At $6300 making the cut and eking out a top 25 could be large for you. Not saying he should be a GPP Staple but I think he will be overlooked and could provide solid value.
Good luck to all this week!
We have a bit of a shorter slate today and I wanted to go over my top GPP Plays for today that will be low priced and keep your budget down to allow you to grab a top guy or two. Remember to check before the game to make sure these players are in the lineup and that it’s not rained out. Good Luck!
Yangervis Solarte 3B Fanduel: 2900 Draftkings: 3100
He is facing the lefty Chen today and has been crushing lefties to the tune of .381 ISO an 9.5% Homerun percentage. While Chen is average against righties, Solarte has a great chance of showing his power today.
Marcus Semien SS Fanduel:2900 Draftkings: 3700
Semien is crushing an 11.4% homerun percentage against righties this year with a .341 ISO. He is facing the lefty Cesar Ramos who gives up a .377 wOBA to righties.
Stephen Drew SS Fanduel: 2700 Draftkings: 2400
Drew has an 8.3% home run percentage verse righties along with a .283 ISO. He also has been hitting pretty hot, with 2 homeruns this past week.
Robbie Grossman OF Fanduel: 3400 Draftkings: 3300
Grossman has been hitting lefties very well this year with a 4.8% homerun percentage and .238 ISO. He faces Jered Weaver who has a .400 wOBA verse lefties. Grossman has hit 2 long balls this past week and the game has an 8.5 over under, so expect Weaver to get hit a bit.
Carlos Santana 1B Fanduel: 3500 Draftkings: 3600
Santana sports a .272 wOBA verse righties this year with a 6.8% homerun percentage. He goes against Edison Volquez who he has tagged for 2 homeruns in 15 career at bats. Volquez sports a .329 wOBA verse righties too, so this game could be some nice points for Carlos!
Well I hope these picks can help you out in your GPPs and good luck in your games!
Pitching Locks of the Day:
Wei-Yin Chen, MIA ($7900): Chen comes into tonight’s game fresh off a 1-hit start versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. Tonight he is facing one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball, the Minnesota Twins. Chen should be in line for a very effective outing and does have the ability to strike out batters as well. He posted a game with 12Ks less the a month ago where he was also very efficient, throwing only 98 pitches through 6.1 innings. Chen has also posted much better numbers on the road, albeit a smaller sample size. One the road he is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA with hitters only batting .205 through 4 starts, compared to at home where he is 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA with hitters only batting .284 through 7 starts. We think Chen will be a cost effective pitcher at Target Field and will go well with our next pick.
Yu Darvish, TEX ($11 000 salary): Of the top tier salary pitchers, we believe Darvish will offer the best points per dollar. He has a very favourable matchup against the Houston Astros, the team with the most strikeouts in the MLB. Texas is also on fire as of late so we think he will be able to use that momentum and turn it into a quality start. Even though he is just coming off tommy john, we expect the right hander to go at least 6 innings. Pair that with Houston’s strikeout rate and 10Ks is a very real possibility for Darvish. Use him with confidence.
Notable Mentions: Madison Bumgarner vs BOS ($11 600), Jaime Garcia @ Reds ($6 700)
Jurickson Profar 2B, TEX ($4000): This pick is a little tricky due to the fact that he may be a gametime decision for Texas’ lineup. If he is indeed in the lineup, he makes for a great moderately priced bat. He has been hot ever since being called up from the minors. He has a .380 AVG and 1.092 OPS in 11 games this season. He was moved over to first base yesterday so it is clear that Texas wants his bat to stay in the lineup. If he is in starting lineup he is a lock. Check close to game time and use him if he’s in.
Alex Rodriguez 1B/3B, NYY ($3600): A Rod has been hot over the last ten games. He’s hitting .268 with 2 HRs and 6 RBI over that span. He faces off tonight against Jered Weaver, who every baseball fan knows throws that ball very softly. Weaver’s fastball average around 83 mph, which is in the bottom of the league in fastball average velocity. With A Rod slowing down, he still has a pretty potent bat. He should be able to get around on Weaver’s fastball and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to put one out of Yankee Stadium. He has a relatively cheap salary which can help when looking for other premier players. We like him and you should too.
June 9 – June 12
Salary $9,000+ :
Brooks Koepka: ($11,000)
All three options at the top seem like great plays, have the course history and stats that fit the bill, but the other two options seem to have more risk.. Dustin Johnson withdrew from this event last year after starting the first round with three straight bogeys. He was apparently “sick”. Mickelson hasn’t been shaky as of late, however, his Par 4 Scoring ranking is not the best at 91st. That leaves me left with Koepka in the 11k range, and his current form, course history and stats all line up. In the past couple years, Koepka has competed at this course twice and he has a T19 and a T3. He is definitely a solid pick heading into the weekend.
Salary $7,000 – $9,000:
Chad Campbell: ($7,800)
Campbell has been on fire lately as he has had back to back top 15 performances. This puts him up to five Top 25’s this year. The slight concern is that he has missed 7 cuts this year, however, in the past five years at this event, he has made the cut all five times including a T8 last year, and a T3 in 2012. Overall, Campbell is a solid pick for GPP lineups this weekend.
Tim Wilkinson: ($7,200)
Wilkinson is a top value on the board again this week. The 37-year-old lefty is having a career year with 8/10 cuts made and three Top 25s. He’s also chasing a spot on New Zealand’s Olympic team, so there’s added incentive for Wilkinson to keep performing at this level. We love his fit for this course; he ranks 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in proximity and 3rd in scrambling on the PGA Tour this season. Additionally, his past results at this event are decent as he has finished T45, T32 in his past two years. At a price like this, Wilkinson is definitely going to be one of the highest owned golfers this weekend, but his recent statistics are too good to fade.
Salary < $7,000:
Alex Cejka: ($6,700)
Here is another guy who has extremely solid stats that do not compare to the guys in his price range. Alex Cejka ranks third in my weight stat ranking, lead by his stroke gained on approaches (18th), par 4 scoring average (23rd), birdie or better percentage (27th) and scrambling (26th). Stats alone, Cejka has value play written all over him. He was a T22 at this event last year. Expect him to make the cut and finish in the top 50.
2015 Champion – Fabian Gomez
This week I will be again focusing on Cash Tournaments. Due to the US Open being played next week we are getting a subpar field this week. The result is overpriced golfers, some of whom you may have to pay up for even if it makes you feel wrong for doing so. I think there is a real possibility that even if you lose a guy or two on Friday evening you may be able to cash still.
The course this week is TPC Southwind located in Memphis, TN. It is hosted by St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital so if you cash big this week maybe you will be generous enough to donate a little of those winnings to help fund their research. As far as the course goes there is a fair share of water on the course and will penalize errant tee and approach shots. The weather doesn’t look like it will be too much of an issue outside of the fact that it is going to +90 degrees Fahrenheit and pretty humid so take that as you will.
Stats to Focus on this week – Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SGT2G), Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%) , Good Drive Percentage (GD%), Strokes Gained Putting (SGP) , Proximity , Prox 150-175 , Prox 175-200
Ryan Palmer $10,800 – Palmer comes in streaking. Making 13/14 cuts and 5/8 here with 3 tops tens (also has made 4 straight here). He ranks 18th in BOB% , 28th SGT2G, 31st in proximity from 175-200 yds and 40th in overall proximity. His last time out he finished 3rd at the Colonial. Palmer is going to head my Cash lineups this week.
GPP Options- Phil Mickelson $11,300 , Brooks Koepka $$11,100
$8,000 – $9,900
David Hearn $8,400 – The Canuck has made 5 of his last 6 cuts and is 4/5 at TPC Southwind. He appears to be improving with his putting after shedding the long putter that he had previously used. He is #1 overall in proximity and ranks 22nd from 150-175 yds and 23rd from 175-200 yds, the two most common approach distances on this course. He will not be hurt by the fact that he ranks 14th in GD%. Plug in Hearn and make that $$.
GPP Options- Harris English $9,900 , Graeme McDowell $8,200 , Francisco Molinari $8,100, Boo Weekley $8,000
$7,900 and below
Chad Campbell $7,800 – He has made his last 3 cuts on the tour which included a 10th and 12th place finish. He is also 6/8 at TPC Southwind. Currently he ranks 27th in SGT2G , 52nd in GD% and 66th in 150-175. This is a play mainly based on current form and course history more so than a stat fit.
Retief Goosen $7,600 – Retief has made 10 straight cuts entering this event and is 5/7 at TPC Southwind. He ranks 25th in SGP , 25th in proximity from 150-175 yds and 35th from 175-200 yds. Goosen most likely isn’t going to go out and challenge for the top of the leaderboard but odds are pretty good he will make the cut and score a Top 25 finish.
GPP Options- Will Wilcox $7,400 , Scott Stallings $7,100 , Robert Garrigus $7,000 , Ben Crane $7,000 , Camilo Villegas $6,900 , John Merrick $6,200 , Arjun Atwal $6,000
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