Draftkings Picks: August 12th

Worth the money: Jose Altuve (HOU, $5100)

Simply put, Altuve is on fire lately.  The likely batting champion has hit an outstanding .407 over his last 15 games with 2 HR and 11 RBI over that span.  Tonight he is facing lefty Francisco Liriano, making his first start of the season in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre.  Liriano has a monstrous WHIP this season at 1.61 and has given up 71 BB over 119.2 IP (5.4 BB/9).  Altuve has also hit unbelievably on the road this season.  In 54 games he has a     .434/.500/.637/1.137 stat line through 212 ABs.  Those are simply incredible numbers and he looks to make them even better tonight in Toronto.  With Altuve’s speed and ability to get on base at a videogame like pace, look for him to accrue points in a variety of ways.  Whether it be via the home run or the stolen base, or simply just by collecting 3+ hits, the tiny man looks to have a productive night.  The astros as a team have a very good matchup tonight.  Use other pieces of their team in accordance with Altuve if you’re looking to stack against a pitcher.  It could prove to yield a lot of points.

 

Batter Pick: Carlos Beltran (TEX, $4300)

Beltran has done well since his trade from the Yankees.  In 9 games with Texas, the veteran switch hitter has collected 9 hits in 29 ABs, 4 of which have gone for extra bases.  That’s good for a .310 AVG and .517 SLG. Beltran is showing no signs of slowing down, even at the age at 39.  He has a favourable matchup against Detroit veteran RHP Anibal Sanchez, who has struggled this year putting together a 6-11 record with a 5.88 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 26 games (18 starts).  With Beltran doing very well since the trade and Sanchez’s below average numbers,  Beltran could be set up to do very well tonight in Arlington.  He continues to put is bat on the ball with power and until he fails to do so, he will be a very effective major league hitter.  My bold prediction is for him to put one out of the yard and cash in a couple of RBI while adding a single to it as well.  Texas also makes a case for another potential team stack.

 

Pitcher Pick: Jon Gray (COL, $8900)

Gray is a pitcher on tonight’s slate that might get overlooked as a potential 25+ point guy due to the likes of David Price and Steven Strasburg taking the mound.  The Rockies have seemed to find their ‘ace’ in Gray and he looks to continue his impressive season against the woeful Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies come into tonight near the bottom of the league in both average and runs scored.  That bodes very well for Gray who has been stellar post all star break, a 3-1 record with a 3.03 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 5 starts.  Gray’s numbers are also considerably better on the road than at home, which is not surprising considering baseballs tend to just fly out of Coors Field.  The only thing that is not better is his W/L record (5-1 at home, 1-4 on the road).  This could be due to the Rockies ability to give Gray many runs in support at Coors Field and less on the road.  Gray is also averaging over 9 strikeouts per 9 innings and could be a very good source of points for a moderate salary.  He offers salary relief compared to some of the other pitchers on tonight’s slate but has the same point potential.  His ceiling is high while his basement in turn is also relatively high. Use him with confidence tonight versus the Phillies.

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Top Low Priced GPP Plays for June 13, 2016

We have a bit of a shorter slate today and I wanted to go over my top GPP Plays for today that will be low priced and keep your budget down to allow you to grab a top guy or two.  Remember to check before the game to make sure these players are in the lineup and that it’s not rained out.  Good Luck!

 

  Yangervis Solarte       3B        Fanduel: 2900 Draftkings: 3100

He is facing the lefty Chen today and has been crushing lefties to the tune of .381 ISO an 9.5% Homerun percentage.  While Chen is average against righties, Solarte has a great chance of showing his power today.

Marcus Semien             SS         Fanduel:2900   Draftkings: 3700

Semien is crushing an 11.4% homerun percentage against righties this year with a .341 ISO.  He is facing the lefty Cesar Ramos who gives up a .377 wOBA to righties.

Stephen Drew              SS         Fanduel: 2700  Draftkings: 2400

Drew has an 8.3% home run percentage verse righties along with a .283 ISO.  He also has been hitting pretty hot, with 2 homeruns this past week.

 

Robbie Grossman         OF        Fanduel: 3400  Draftkings: 3300

Grossman has been hitting lefties very well this year with a 4.8% homerun percentage and .238 ISO.  He faces Jered Weaver who has a .400 wOBA verse lefties.  Grossman has hit 2 long balls this past week and the game has an 8.5 over under, so expect Weaver to get hit a bit.

 

Carlos Santana             1B        Fanduel: 3500  Draftkings: 3600         

Santana sports a .272 wOBA verse righties this year with a 6.8% homerun percentage.  He goes against Edison Volquez who he has tagged for 2 homeruns in 15 career at bats.  Volquez sports a .329 wOBA verse righties too, so this game could be some nice points for Carlos!

 

Well I hope these picks can help you out in your GPPs and good luck in your games!

 

 

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MLB Draftkings Plays: Wednesday June 8th

Pitching Locks of the Day:

Wei-Yin Chen, MIA ($7900): Chen comes into tonight’s game fresh off a 1-hit start versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Tonight he is facing one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball, the Minnesota Twins.  Chen should be in line for a very effective outing and does have the ability to strike out batters as well.  He posted a game with 12Ks less the a month ago where he was also very efficient, throwing only 98 pitches through 6.1 innings.  Chen has also posted much better numbers on the road, albeit a smaller sample size.  One the road he is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA with hitters only batting .205 through 4 starts, compared to at home where he is 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA with hitters only batting .284 through 7 starts.  We think Chen will be a cost effective pitcher at Target Field and will go well with our next pick.

 

Yu Darvish, TEX ($11 000 salary):  Of the top tier salary pitchers, we believe Darvish will offer the best points per dollar.  He has a very favourable matchup against the Houston Astros, the team with the most strikeouts in the MLB.  Texas is also on fire as of late so we think he will be able to use that momentum and turn it into a quality start.  Even though he is just coming off tommy john, we expect the right hander to go at least 6 innings.  Pair that with Houston’s strikeout rate and 10Ks is a very real possibility for Darvish.  Use him with confidence.

Notable Mentions: Madison Bumgarner  vs BOS ($11 600), Jaime Garcia @ Reds ($6 700)

 

 

 

 

Batter Picks:

Jurickson Profar 2B, TEX ($4000): This pick is a little tricky due to the fact that he may be a gametime decision for Texas’ lineup.  If he is indeed in the lineup, he makes for a great moderately priced bat.  He has been hot ever since being called up from the minors.  He has a .380 AVG and 1.092 OPS in 11 games this season.  He was moved over to first base yesterday so it is clear that Texas wants his bat to stay in the lineup.  If he is in starting lineup he is a lock.  Check close to game time and use him if he’s in.

 

Alex Rodriguez 1B/3B, NYY ($3600): A Rod has been hot over the last ten games.  He’s hitting .268 with 2 HRs and 6 RBI over that span.  He faces off tonight against Jered Weaver, who every baseball fan knows throws that ball very softly.  Weaver’s fastball average around 83 mph, which is in the bottom of the league in fastball average velocity.  With A Rod slowing down, he still has a pretty potent bat.  He should be able to get around on Weaver’s fastball and it wouldn’t be surprising for him to put one out of Yankee Stadium.  He has a relatively cheap salary which can help when looking for other premier players.  We like him and you should too.

 

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Rambo’s Hot Corner Tips Week of June 1, 2016

Let me introduce myself.  I am a life- long sports fan and participant.  I played baseball with former Yankee 1st Baseman Chris Chambliss and All Pro Football Defensive Back Willie Buchanan at Oceanside High School in southern California (same High School produced NFL Hall of Famer Junior Seau).  At age 5, I saw my 1st baseball game on TV, 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers vs. the hated New York Yankees.  I was hooked and mesmerized by the play Jackie Robinson, Duke Snider (who I met after he retired) and Don Newcomb.  Growing up SOCAL allowed me to play all sports.  Funny thing, Golf was not one of them.  Later in life (age 30) my brother in-law took me out to play.  I was so frustrated that day while shooting a 136.  From that day forward I was determined to beat that brother- in- law of mine.  Within a month I was whipping him really good and he no longer would play with me (still to this day we have not played but we will this summer).   I have recorded 2 hole in ones (won a Ford Car at the John Wooden Basketball Classics).

Let’s get to baseball!  I plan to provide readers with hot tips on Teams, Hitters, and Pitchers.  I will be reviewing DFS data for charts and trends that will help you build those money making lineups.  Let’s get started:

 

Hitters

It’s no wonder the Boston Red Sox lead the AL East.  They lead all of Baseball, season to date

  • #1 in MLB Batting with .295 BA, .487 SLG and OBP .359 stack your lineup in Red Sox Hitters when they play against weak pitching teams.
  • #3 in MLB Batting in the last 7 days with .286 BA, .494 SLG, and OBP of .387
  • Pittsburgh Pirates have been the Hottest over the past 7 days with .308 BA, .486 SLG, and .359 OBP

These guys are hot Season to Date Minimum 120 AB

  • Daniel Murphy WSH – .395 BA, .621 SLG, and .426 OBP
  • Xander Bogaerts BOS – .354 BA with a OBP of .405 (just had a 23 game hitting streak ended)
  • Ryan Braun MIL – .351 BA, .583 SLG and a .424 OBP
  • Ben Zobrist CHC – .351 BA, .538 SLG, and .452 OBP
  • Victor Martinez – .345 BA, .529 SLG .529 SLG, and a .389 OBP

David Ortiz BOS has had a blazing start in this 2016 season, 2nd in HRs with 14, leads in RBIs with 47 to go along with a .337 BA.  He has taken advantage of having the likes of Xander Bogaerts .354 BA, Jackie Bradley Jr. .331 BA, and Travis Shaw .299 BA.  This lineup screams Stack Me!

 

The Chicago Cubs have a wrecking crew of hot hitters also.

  • #3 in MLB Batting with a .263 and OBP .359
  • Ben Zobrist – .351 BA with astounding .452 OBP
  • Dexter Fowler – .316 BA with OBP .433

I would stack these guys with Anthony Rizzo (11HRs, 37 RBIs, .378 OBP, and .494 OBP) and Kris Bryant (11 HRs, 37 RBIs, .373 OBP, and .508 SLG).

Don’t go to sleep on Pittsburgh Pirates Over the last 7 days they have a team .295 BA, .487 SLG, and .359 OBP.  They are being led by Gregory Polanco – .423 BA, .423 OBP, and MLB leading 12 RBIs and David Freese – .407 BA, .467 OBP, and .704 SLG.

Use your DFS spreadsheet to review Hitters vs. Pitchers and you will be mining Gold and Stacking winnings.

Pitchers

Picking pitchers to start is really simple.  I look at average innings pitched, # of strike outs, and the team success rate (standings).

  • Chicago Cubs – 2.60 Team ERA, 5 SHOs, .201 BAA
  • Washington Nationals – 2.99 Team ERA, 4 SHOs, .225 BAA
  • New York Mets – 3.19 Team ERA, 6 SHOs, .249 BAA
  • Seattle Mariners – 3.36 Team ERA, 4 SHOs .232 BAA
  • Los Angeles Dodgers – 3.36 Team ERA, 6 SHOs, .216 BAA

All of the above teams are at or near the top of their respective divisions.  Great to Good pitching almost always defeats good hitting teams.  Double down when these hot pitching teams play their weaker rivals to max your returns.

The list of individual pitchers could be the “Chicago Story” (Cubbies).  MLB is being led by:

  • Clayton Kershaw – LAD – 7-1 record averaging 12.2 SOs per 9 and 1.56 ERA
  • Jake Arrieta – CHC- 9-0 record, averaging 9.8 SOs per 9 and 1.72 ERA
  • Noah Syndergaard – NYM- 5-2 record, averaging 12.7 SOs per 9 and 1.87 ERA
  • Madison Bumgarner – SF – 6-2 record, averaging 11.5 SOs per 9 and 2.12 ERA
  • Jason Hammel – CHC- 6-1 record, averaging 8.7 SOs per 9 and 2.17 ERA

I want to spotlight the performance of Matt Harvey, NYM who pitched Memorial Day.  He was virtually unhittable against the CWS for 7 shutout innings.  He has struggle this year following Tommy John surgery and has a 4-7 record.  He’s back, The Dark Knight Lives again in Gotham City!

Summary

Use you DFS sheets to find patterns and trends.  Hitters vs, Pitchers is essential.  There are Hitters who will wear out even the strongest performing pitchers.  By the same token review all the weaker performing pitching teams to capitalize on their status.  Next time I will take specific DFS Spreadsheet samples to show you where to “mine” for daily specific winners.

 

Rambo Out

Res07n8y@yahoo.com

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How to Use Solver in Excel to generate Optimal Lineups for Daily Fantasy Sports

I created this video to show how to generate optimal lineups for Daily Fantasy Sports.



Here is the download link for the Excel spreadsheet to follow along:

http://excelbyjoe.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Optimal-lineup-video.xlsx

In this video, I use these steps to create the lineup spreadsheet:

1. Copy and paste your player data into the spreadsheet
2. Add a column to divide salary by projected score to get your top 200 players. Solver only looks at 200 records.
3. Created columns for each position and used an IF statement to tell if the player is in our lineup or not.
4. Set the parameters for Solver to look at which include the max salary, number of players at each position and total players.
5. How to install Solver
6. How to use solver to read the parameters we set up
7. How to see which players were chosen by Solver for our optimal lineup

optimal_lineup

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